Can Valve Save Linux Gaming In 2021?

Let’s begin with a sobering observation. Despite two straight years of incredible advancements in Linux gaming — including going from 0 to 6000+ Windows-only games playable on the Steam for Linux client — that progress has barely moved the needle for Linux adoption. As our own James Mawson so poignantly states:

This night-and-day difference has driven a growth so feeble, it’s difficult to separate from statistical noise. Linux isn’t even a serious threat to the Mac in this space. Crazy.

Clearly We Have Work To Do…

Proton 5 now ships with the Steam for Linux client, and it introduces improved performance, support for DX12 and much more.

As Valve’s exhaustive 2020 recap points out, an increase in developers testing their games against Proton (without needing to invest huge time and resources into developing native ports) resulted in substantial AAA titles like Death Stranding, Cyberpunk 2077 and others being playable on Linux at or shortly after their native Windows 10 releases.

That’s wonderful for gamers already immersed in the Linux gaming ecosystem, but let’s be honest with ourselves and admit there are still valid reasons to dual-boot Windows.

Maybe that’s the lure of popular games that rely on anti-cheat software or invasive DRM. Maybe it’s the lack of ecosystem-wide support for brand new hardware like the Radeon RX 6000 GPUs.

Maybe it’s a more general problem, like the paralysis people feel when faced with choosing a Linux distro that’s right for their needs.

(Especially when this happens.)

Valve Wants More Linux Gamers, But HOW?

So let’s get to Valve’s big tease this week, which was quietly tucked away near the bottom of its lengthy 2020 Steam recap (well worth the read, by the way, regardless of which OS you enjoy Steam on).

“We’re continuing to invest in technology that improves game compatibility and performance through Steam Play,” writes Valve. “We’re also putting together new ways for prospective users to get into Linux gaming and experience these improvements.”

So what the heck is it? Right now we can only speculate and count on “Valve Time” being mercifully short. Let’s speculate then!

Is it Steam Machines 2.0?

Doubtful. That promising initiative ultimately failed and fizzled alongside SteamOS. It’s worth noting, however, that Steam Machines launched before Proton even existed, and getting Windows games to run reliably on Linux was a considerably more complicated and technically demanding task during those dark ages…

Still, there’s stiff competition in the PC hardware space, and Valve can’t rely on its former OEM allies to sell a Steam Box 2.0.

After all, it has Linux OEM allies already doing it.

Companies like System76, Tuxedo Computers and Slimbook sell a compelling range of Linux laptops and desktops. Ubuntu, Manjaro and other popular distros make graphics driver installation even easier than on Windows. And gaming-centric distributions like Garuda Linux and GamerOS have eclipsed the original promise of SteamOS, delivering an experience that’s optimized for gaming, with important apps like Steam and Lutris preinstalled.

The answer to this puzzle is absolutely not another distro or yet another custom gaming box.

Steam Needs Screens

I believe hardware is part of the equation. With the continued popularity of web apps and the ceaseless push of cloud gaming (Stadia, Geforce Now, Shadow), the operating system you use matters less and less.

If I were Valve and wanted to sell games on its own terms, I would endeavor to put Steam on as many screens as possible.

Imagine if Steam was as ubiquitous as Netflix? Imagine if Samsung, LG and other TV manufacturers included Steam by default on your new Smart TV and tossed in an Xbox One X|S controller.

Steam Cloud Gaming, baby, built on Linux and available on a TV near you.

On a very related note, Valve enthusiastically mentions the increase in gaming sessions using a controller, up 66.6 percent (yep, that’s the real stat!) from 2019. Ok fine, gaming was a pivotal portal to escaping 2020, so how about a more important data point: the sheer number of users rocking a controller with Steam shot up to 46.6 million people in 2020 compared to 31.8 million in 2019.

I know what you’re thinking. Cloud gaming is still a pipe dream for millions in rural America. And unattainable for many more millions around the globe who don’t enjoy blazing fast bandwidth. That isn’t changing any time soon.

Steam Needs Simplicity, Linux Needs Marketing

The other possibility is a two-pronged approach: simplicity and some badass marketing (something Linux exceedingly fails at).

The reality of Steam Proton is that while it has propelled Linux gaming forward, it’s still not simple enough to use or to understand for the average gamer. For a reality check, watch this:

There are multiple Proton versions to choose from, and frequently we see games that run more reliably on older versions than newer ones. There are custom versions of Proton. There are command-line steps needed for certain titles to even launch. Games that rely on anti-cheat software might work one day, then unexpectedly break with the next patch.

Worse still, you could get banned for even attempting to play them on Linux!

But most crucially, I challenge you to find 3 of your Windows-gaming friends who even know what the hell Proton is in the first place. . .

This is precisely where a giant like Valve can put its considerable weight behind both simplicity and marketing.

Perhaps bigger and more popular games can be transparently “containerized,” automatically downloading any necessary tweaks needed for the user’s current Linux distro, and auto-launching with the best version of Proton (which is, sadly, not always the latest version).

Valve could invest even more time, resources and money into solving the Easy Anti-Cheat problem on Linux. Codeweavers (the company whose WINE is a critical component of Proton) tried working on this, but it’s up to the actual anti-cheat vendors to enable Proton support. Hopefully Valve can also exert its influence in this space.

Then of course there’s marketing. Bear in mind that Valve already has a direct line of communication to its 120 million monthly active players. And Valve PR man Doug Lombardi can hammer out a simple two-sentence plain text email (Lombardi never uses a formal press release format; he never even uses images!) and have the global gaming press report on it within minutes.

Is any of this what Valve has planned to attract prospective Linux users? To actually move that adoption needle in a meaningful way? I wish I knew, and only time will tell. But the bones are there, Valve has been steadily investing in whatever this plan may be, and it still clearly believes Linux gaming is the future.